This might be right, however, the record breaking cold in huge areas, especially in Asia suggest the drop can be a lot sooner.
By Paul Homewood
Most of the indicators are now pointing to ENSO-neutral conditions by late spring/early summer.
The latest ENSO update from the NWS shows the warm water in the central and eastern Pacific continuing to break up and dissipate.
The change in the last four weeks is evident:
More significantly, there has been a dramatic reduction in upper ocean temperatures since the middle of January, with them virtually back to average.
Negative anomalies largely remain below the surface, but are spreading eastwards. Once the remaining hot spot has evaporated away in the east, there will be an awful lot of cold water around.
All of this warmth at the sea surface has had to go somewhere, and that somewhere is the atmosphere. The UAH anomaly has jumped from 0.54C to 0.83C. However, this sort of increase is not uncommon during El Ninos – there was a jump of 0.27C…
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